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Since December, the maleic anhydride market as a whole has shown a plunge, with the Shandong market as an example, a decline of up to 18%. Although the market price at the end of the month has hit a 2018-year low, but the industry is still bearish in the aftermarket.
In the device restart, raw material decline, demand restrictions and other partial air impact, it is expected that maleic anhydride after the market is still weak, repair rebound conditions are not yet available.
Supply noodles At present, the overall start load of domestic butane method is around 80%. Shandong 60,000 tons of devices after a short parking overhaul, last weekend has been a reboot, the production of the basic return to normal; At present, only a device in Yunnan to replace the catalyst parking in late December, but the factory inventory can maintain the downstream terminal factory.
The reboot of two installations in Shandong has led to an increase in supply expectations, making it difficult for the industry to have confidence.
The price of maleic anhydride fell sharply, but with the raw material pure benzene December price adjustment cycle in Sinopec listed prices accumulated by 1150 yuan/ton, according to this year's domestic enterprise theory profit calculation, production enterprises profit margins narrowed from November, but there is still room for profit, factories continue to park less likely, so the supply surface is expected to be difficult for the current market.
From the raw material point of view, whether pure benzene or positive butane, market prices are reduced, it is difficult to form a strong support for phenol prices on the cost surface. On the pure benzene side, crude oil prices plummeted, weak growth in the United States and the global economy, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again in December, liquidity continued to shrink, for the Commodity futures market pressure is hard to rise. Downstream styrene stocks rose to more than 200,000 tonnes earlier this week, and there was still pressure to arrive by the end of the month.
Seen from the upstream and downstream, pure benzene market or low shock.
On the positive butane side, by the fall of crude oil, the current market price in Shandong has fallen to 3800 yuan/ton, but then we need to continue to pay attention to crude oil news. Worries about the global economic slowdown and the risk aversion caused by the stock market crash remain a major factor in the further decline in oil prices, with U.S. WTI crude and Brent crude falling close to 40% per cent in the first quarter, hitting a 18-month low.
The trend of international oil price completely affects maleic anhydride raw material positive butane and pure benzene, raw material cost drag maleic anhydride price.
Requirement surface From the downstream point of view, downstream UPR resin itself in the seasonal traditional off-season, into the December, north China and the northeast production and demand is significantly suppressed, winter heating season environmental protection production restrictions, small and medium-sized enterprises have a certain impact, north China and Shandong local factories mostly down negative operation, the start rate is significantly lower than the three quarter, As a result, the demand for raw materials is reduced.
Although the price of maleic anhydride decreased greatly, but at the end of the year by the capital and environmental protection and other pressures, did not stimulate the resin enterprises on the procurement of raw materials enthusiasm. In the cost, supply and demand did not see good, maleic anhydride after the unspeakable optimistic, or still maintain a weak trend.
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